Dating is not a numbers game. Dating game show.



Dating is not a numbers game

Dating is not a numbers game

Times have changed, and that is a good thing—especially the fading-away of cruel taboos that once stigmatized women who engaged in premarital sex or bore children out of wedlock. Thing is, times change for a reason. The values question assumes that sexual mores loosen naturally from conservative to liberal. In reality, these values have ebbed and flowed throughout history, often in conjunction with prevailing sex ratios.

But the problem is a demographic one. Multiple studies show that college-educated Americans are increasingly reluctant to marry those lacking a college degree. This bias is having a devastating impact on the dating market for college-educated women. According to population estimates from the U. Among college grads age 30 to 39, there are 7.

They change behavior too. According to sociologists, economists and psychologists who have studied sex ratios throughout history, the culture is less likely to emphasize courtship and monogamy when women are in oversupply. I wanted to show that god-fearing folks steeped in old-fashioned values are just as susceptible to the effects of shifting sex ratios as cosmopolitan, hookup-happy somethings who frequent Upper East Side wine bars. Eventually I hit pay dirt.

According to the ARIS study, there are now Mormon women for every Mormon men in the state of Utah—a 50 percent oversupply of women. Some biographical details have been altered to hide their identities.

And yes, Mormon men take full advantage. Premarital sex remains taboo for Mormons, but the shortage of Mormon men was pushing some women over the brink. I received an email from a hedge fund manager who wanted to talk to me about a job. I called back to thank him but explained I was busy writing a book. He asked what the book was about, and I wound up telling him about the Mormon marriage crisis.

Both of these socially conservative communities are suffering from marriage crises that are testing not only their faiths but social norms as well. Hunt, a year-old who only recently got married herself, told me she has three times more single women than single men in her matchmaking database. She shared stories of devout Mormon women who wound up marrying outside the religion—officially known as the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints—simply because they had no other options.

I told her to freeze her eggs. Overall, there are thousands of unmarried girls in their late twenties. Marriage and motherhood are essentially spiritual obligations, which is why the Orthodox marriage crisis is so hotly debated and why it has earned its own moniker. Shidduch is the Hebrew word for a marriage match, and Orthodox Jews including the more assimilated Modern Orthodox now refer to the excess supply of unmarried women in their communities as the Shidduch Crisis.

Mormon and Orthodox Jewish leaders alike fear that their respective marriage crises reflect some failure to instill proper values in young people. Perhaps young people are too self-absorbed? Maybe the men are just too picky? In fact, the root causes of both the Shidduch Crisis and the Mormon marriage crisis have little to do with culture or religion.

The true culprit in both cases is demographics. The fact is that there are more marriage-age women than men both in the Orthodox Jewish community and in the Utah LDS church. And just as I predicted, lopsided gender ratios affect conservative religious communities in much the same way they affect secular ones. At first glance, the state of Utah—60 percent Mormon and home of the LDS church—looks like the wrong place to study what I like to call the man deficit.

Like several other western states, Utah actually has more men than women. But lurking beneath the Census data is a demographic anomaly that makes Utah a textbook example of how shifting gender ratios alter behavior. The LDS church actually has one of the most lopsided gender ratios of any religion in the United States. One fact that becomes apparent when studying the demographics of religion is that it is almost always the women who are more devout. Across all faiths, women are less likely than men to leave organized religion.

According to the Pew Research Center, 67 percent of self-described atheists are men. Statistically speaking, an atheist meeting may be one of the best places for single women to meet available men.

The Utah LDS church was in fact 52 percent female as recently as Since , however, the Mormon gender gap in Utah has widened dramatically—from a gender ratio of In other words, the LDS church in Utah now has three women for every two men. The sex ratio is especially lopsided among Mormon singles. When Blake attends singles events for Mormons, she said there are often two women for every one man. As a result, Blake rarely meets suitable men in these settings and often winds up spending most of her time chatting with other women.

The lopsided numbers encourage Mormon men to hold out for the perfect wife, Blake said. The dream for the Mormon man is to get married and have six kids. As he ages, his dream never changes. The simple answer is that over the past twenty-five years, Utah men have been quitting the LDS church in unusually large numbers.

Contrary to popular belief, the majority of Mormon men do not go on missions, which typically entail a mix of community service and proselytizing. Mormon men are being asked to serve missions at precisely the time in their lives—late teens and early twenties—when sociologists say men are most susceptible to dropping out of organized religion.

Cragun believed the dropout problem among men is the real reason why, in , the LDS church lowered the age at which Mormon men can start serving missions from 19 to Between and , the number of Mormons serving missions increased from 58, a year to 83,, according to the LDS website. If this trend continues, the lowered mission age should reduce the Mormon gender gap and ease the Mormon marriage crisis over time.

There is ample evidence that Mormon men are delaying marriage. News articles on this topic tend to be filled with tales of Mormon women who want to marry but cannot find a good Mormon man. The Salt Lake Tribune published an article in headline: LDS leader Richard Scott was quoted chastising young men to grow up: Get on with life and focus on getting married.

The finding was unexpected, given that most Utah Mormons marry by their early twenties. When it came to dating, BYU men seemed paralyzed by indecision. Based on enrollment figures, BYU men should not be so picky.

In , the gender ratio among BYU undergrads was actually With 17 percent more men than women on campus, it is the BYU women who should be the choosy ones.

Hannah Wheelwright helped unravel the mystery for me. A BYU grad, Wheelwright explained that it is common for BYU women to marry male classmates while still in school and that a material number of the newlywed women wind up dropping out of college.

Consequently, the gender ratio among the single students at BYU more closely resembles the gender ratio of the freshman class than it does that of the overall student body. Single BYU men are keenly aware of the lopsided numbers, said Wheelwright, who is a leader of Ordain Women, a feminist organization seeking the appointment of women to the LDS priesthood.

As I said, premarital sex is still taboo for Mormons. Yet, just as Bowman suggested, the undersupply of men does seem to be loosening Mormon sexual mores. That is precisely what Mormon women now experience. A culture of plastic surgery has taken root among Mormon women. According to a RealSelf study, Salt Lake City residents did more searches for breast implants on the RealSelf website than residents of any other city.

In this cosmetic arms race, the big guns are Botox, liposuction, and breast augmentation. Kimball Crofts, a Salt Lake City plastic surgeon. He speaks from experience. Mormon himself, Crofts did not marry till his forties.

Crofts said his office has college-age women coming in for Botox injections. The day I interviewed him, Crofts had just finished a consultation with an attractive woman in her twenties seeking a breast augmentation: The lopsided gender ratios feed preexisting disillusionment among Mormon women by making their core duty—getting married—difficult, degrading, or even impossible.

The Letters to the Editor section of The 5 Towns Jewish Times, a weekly newspaper for the Orthodox community in suburban New York, has become a receptacle for Shidduch Crisis—related angst and sadness.

And believe me, sometimes it hurts to do just that—i. Orthodox men are not abandoning their faith in large numbers and leaving Orthodox women behind. According to a recent Pew Research study, only 2 percent of Orthodox Jews are married to non-Jews, and the attrition rate from the Orthodox movement to the more mainstream Reform or Conservative branches of Judaism has actually been declining.

The imbalance in the Orthodox marriage market boils down to a demographic quirk: The Orthodox community has an extremely high birth rate, and a high birth rate means there will be more year-olds than year-olds, more year-olds than year-olds, and so on and so on. Couple the increasing number of children born every year with the traditional age gap at marriage—the typical marriage age for Orthodox Jews is 19 for women and 22 for men, according to Michael Salamon, a psychologist who works with the Orthodox community and wrote a book on the Shidduch Crisis—and you wind up with a marriage market with more year-old women than year-old men.

There is no U. Census data on religion. Based on his academic research, Comenetz contended that each one-year age cohort in the Orthodox community has 4 percent more members than the one preceding it. What this means is that for every year-old men in the Orthodox dating pool, there are year-old women—12 percent more women than men. According to a article in the Jewish weekly Ami Magazine, there are now 3, unmarried Orthodox women between the ages of 25 and 40 in the New York City metro area and another over That is the Shidduch Crisis in a nutshell.

Unfortunately, relatively few Orthodox Jews realize that the Shidduch Crisis boils down to a math problem. Most explanations for the Shidduch Crisis blame cultural influences for causing men to delay marriage. With Mormons, there is no scientific way to settle the culture-versus-demographics argument.

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It’s a NUMBERS GAME!.. guys need to chill



Dating is not a numbers game

Times have changed, and that is a good thing—especially the fading-away of cruel taboos that once stigmatized women who engaged in premarital sex or bore children out of wedlock.

Thing is, times change for a reason. The values question assumes that sexual mores loosen naturally from conservative to liberal. In reality, these values have ebbed and flowed throughout history, often in conjunction with prevailing sex ratios.

But the problem is a demographic one. Multiple studies show that college-educated Americans are increasingly reluctant to marry those lacking a college degree.

This bias is having a devastating impact on the dating market for college-educated women. According to population estimates from the U. Among college grads age 30 to 39, there are 7. They change behavior too. According to sociologists, economists and psychologists who have studied sex ratios throughout history, the culture is less likely to emphasize courtship and monogamy when women are in oversupply.

I wanted to show that god-fearing folks steeped in old-fashioned values are just as susceptible to the effects of shifting sex ratios as cosmopolitan, hookup-happy somethings who frequent Upper East Side wine bars.

Eventually I hit pay dirt. According to the ARIS study, there are now Mormon women for every Mormon men in the state of Utah—a 50 percent oversupply of women. Some biographical details have been altered to hide their identities.

And yes, Mormon men take full advantage. Premarital sex remains taboo for Mormons, but the shortage of Mormon men was pushing some women over the brink. I received an email from a hedge fund manager who wanted to talk to me about a job. I called back to thank him but explained I was busy writing a book. He asked what the book was about, and I wound up telling him about the Mormon marriage crisis. Both of these socially conservative communities are suffering from marriage crises that are testing not only their faiths but social norms as well.

Hunt, a year-old who only recently got married herself, told me she has three times more single women than single men in her matchmaking database. She shared stories of devout Mormon women who wound up marrying outside the religion—officially known as the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints—simply because they had no other options. I told her to freeze her eggs. Overall, there are thousands of unmarried girls in their late twenties. Marriage and motherhood are essentially spiritual obligations, which is why the Orthodox marriage crisis is so hotly debated and why it has earned its own moniker.

Shidduch is the Hebrew word for a marriage match, and Orthodox Jews including the more assimilated Modern Orthodox now refer to the excess supply of unmarried women in their communities as the Shidduch Crisis. Mormon and Orthodox Jewish leaders alike fear that their respective marriage crises reflect some failure to instill proper values in young people.

Perhaps young people are too self-absorbed? Maybe the men are just too picky? In fact, the root causes of both the Shidduch Crisis and the Mormon marriage crisis have little to do with culture or religion. The true culprit in both cases is demographics. The fact is that there are more marriage-age women than men both in the Orthodox Jewish community and in the Utah LDS church. And just as I predicted, lopsided gender ratios affect conservative religious communities in much the same way they affect secular ones.

At first glance, the state of Utah—60 percent Mormon and home of the LDS church—looks like the wrong place to study what I like to call the man deficit. Like several other western states, Utah actually has more men than women. But lurking beneath the Census data is a demographic anomaly that makes Utah a textbook example of how shifting gender ratios alter behavior. The LDS church actually has one of the most lopsided gender ratios of any religion in the United States.

One fact that becomes apparent when studying the demographics of religion is that it is almost always the women who are more devout. Across all faiths, women are less likely than men to leave organized religion. According to the Pew Research Center, 67 percent of self-described atheists are men. Statistically speaking, an atheist meeting may be one of the best places for single women to meet available men.

The Utah LDS church was in fact 52 percent female as recently as Since , however, the Mormon gender gap in Utah has widened dramatically—from a gender ratio of In other words, the LDS church in Utah now has three women for every two men. The sex ratio is especially lopsided among Mormon singles. When Blake attends singles events for Mormons, she said there are often two women for every one man. As a result, Blake rarely meets suitable men in these settings and often winds up spending most of her time chatting with other women.

The lopsided numbers encourage Mormon men to hold out for the perfect wife, Blake said. The dream for the Mormon man is to get married and have six kids. As he ages, his dream never changes. The simple answer is that over the past twenty-five years, Utah men have been quitting the LDS church in unusually large numbers.

Contrary to popular belief, the majority of Mormon men do not go on missions, which typically entail a mix of community service and proselytizing. Mormon men are being asked to serve missions at precisely the time in their lives—late teens and early twenties—when sociologists say men are most susceptible to dropping out of organized religion. Cragun believed the dropout problem among men is the real reason why, in , the LDS church lowered the age at which Mormon men can start serving missions from 19 to Between and , the number of Mormons serving missions increased from 58, a year to 83,, according to the LDS website.

If this trend continues, the lowered mission age should reduce the Mormon gender gap and ease the Mormon marriage crisis over time. There is ample evidence that Mormon men are delaying marriage. News articles on this topic tend to be filled with tales of Mormon women who want to marry but cannot find a good Mormon man. The Salt Lake Tribune published an article in headline: LDS leader Richard Scott was quoted chastising young men to grow up: Get on with life and focus on getting married.

The finding was unexpected, given that most Utah Mormons marry by their early twenties. When it came to dating, BYU men seemed paralyzed by indecision. Based on enrollment figures, BYU men should not be so picky. In , the gender ratio among BYU undergrads was actually With 17 percent more men than women on campus, it is the BYU women who should be the choosy ones. Hannah Wheelwright helped unravel the mystery for me. A BYU grad, Wheelwright explained that it is common for BYU women to marry male classmates while still in school and that a material number of the newlywed women wind up dropping out of college.

Consequently, the gender ratio among the single students at BYU more closely resembles the gender ratio of the freshman class than it does that of the overall student body. Single BYU men are keenly aware of the lopsided numbers, said Wheelwright, who is a leader of Ordain Women, a feminist organization seeking the appointment of women to the LDS priesthood.

As I said, premarital sex is still taboo for Mormons. Yet, just as Bowman suggested, the undersupply of men does seem to be loosening Mormon sexual mores. That is precisely what Mormon women now experience. A culture of plastic surgery has taken root among Mormon women.

According to a RealSelf study, Salt Lake City residents did more searches for breast implants on the RealSelf website than residents of any other city. In this cosmetic arms race, the big guns are Botox, liposuction, and breast augmentation. Kimball Crofts, a Salt Lake City plastic surgeon.

He speaks from experience. Mormon himself, Crofts did not marry till his forties. Crofts said his office has college-age women coming in for Botox injections. The day I interviewed him, Crofts had just finished a consultation with an attractive woman in her twenties seeking a breast augmentation: The lopsided gender ratios feed preexisting disillusionment among Mormon women by making their core duty—getting married—difficult, degrading, or even impossible.

The Letters to the Editor section of The 5 Towns Jewish Times, a weekly newspaper for the Orthodox community in suburban New York, has become a receptacle for Shidduch Crisis—related angst and sadness. And believe me, sometimes it hurts to do just that—i. Orthodox men are not abandoning their faith in large numbers and leaving Orthodox women behind.

According to a recent Pew Research study, only 2 percent of Orthodox Jews are married to non-Jews, and the attrition rate from the Orthodox movement to the more mainstream Reform or Conservative branches of Judaism has actually been declining. The imbalance in the Orthodox marriage market boils down to a demographic quirk: The Orthodox community has an extremely high birth rate, and a high birth rate means there will be more year-olds than year-olds, more year-olds than year-olds, and so on and so on.

Couple the increasing number of children born every year with the traditional age gap at marriage—the typical marriage age for Orthodox Jews is 19 for women and 22 for men, according to Michael Salamon, a psychologist who works with the Orthodox community and wrote a book on the Shidduch Crisis—and you wind up with a marriage market with more year-old women than year-old men.

There is no U. Census data on religion. Based on his academic research, Comenetz contended that each one-year age cohort in the Orthodox community has 4 percent more members than the one preceding it.

What this means is that for every year-old men in the Orthodox dating pool, there are year-old women—12 percent more women than men. According to a article in the Jewish weekly Ami Magazine, there are now 3, unmarried Orthodox women between the ages of 25 and 40 in the New York City metro area and another over That is the Shidduch Crisis in a nutshell.

Unfortunately, relatively few Orthodox Jews realize that the Shidduch Crisis boils down to a math problem. Most explanations for the Shidduch Crisis blame cultural influences for causing men to delay marriage. With Mormons, there is no scientific way to settle the culture-versus-demographics argument.

Dating is not a numbers game

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